Freight

Introduction

Since its groundbreaking first publication in 2007, the INRIX National Traffic Scorecard Annual Report has analyzed and compared the status of traffic congestion throughout the top 100 metropolitan markets in the U.S. and the nation as a whole. Last Fall, INRIX also introduced the Scorecard for major countries throughout Europe. Reviewed by regional departments of transportation, academics, the media, city planners, economists and everyday drivers, the INRIX Scorecard has become a trusted benchmark for understanding congestion and the impact of traffic in our major cities.

Drawing on five years of trend data, this 2010 Annual Report documents that after three years of relatively modest traffic congestion, America is now back on the road to gridlock with a vengeance. The data tells congestion is on its way back, even with only modest urban area job growth. And traffic is particularly worst in areas and specific locations where congestion levels remained elevated even at the deepest depths of the recession. Simply put, it appears that congestion in 2010 acted like a magnet—where it existed, it had a tendency to attract disproportionately more of it. This applies to both regions and specific roadways, where sharp increases in congestion were recorded. Absent a sudden and sustained fuel price shock, or the dreaded double dip recession or jobless recovery economic scenarios, congestion is poised to roar back—2010 shows that we are back on the road to gridlock.

Key Scorecard Findings

The Nation’s Travel Time Tax, a key indicator of traffic congestion, was 9.7% in 2010, up 11% from 2009, but still 27% off the 2007 peak.
In 2010, 70 regions saw increased congestion vs. 2009, 41 regions exceeded their 2006 levels, 9 (mostly smaller areas) exceeded their 2007 levels and are the highest yet recorded.
When employment returns to 2007 levels, 9 MILLION more daily commute trips than 2010 levels will need to be accomodated, further stressing America’s urban highway network.
All congestion is not created equal: The nation’s worst travel corridors can cost their users more than 80 hours of annual delay in the evening peak period alone.
Los Angeles area’s freeway system is more congested than that of any other city in the United States, U.K., France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, by all measures.

INRIX’s initial 2007 Scorecard was revolutionary, demonstrating that GPS-based probe vehicle data can provide a comprehensive, consistent and timely measure of traffic congestion nationwide. The 2008 Annual Report documented the dramatic 30%+ plunge in congestion from 2007 caused by 2008’s skyrocketing fuel prices and the economic downturn. The 2009 Annual Report showed that drop in congestion had ended and seemed to “reset” to 2004/2005 levels and further concluded that “what happens in 2010 and beyond to congestion will largely be shaped by the rate and pace of economic recovery, in particular the rate—or lack thereof—of job growth.” This theme of job growth and its impact is a major focus of this 2010 Annual Report.

Leveraging tens of billions of data points collected and archived by the INRIX Smart Driver Network, the Scorecard publishes the most up-to-date information regarding overall congestion and specific bottlenecks on the major roadways across America. By analyzing nearly 50,000 road segments totaling more than 110,000 miles of the major highways nationwide, with a special focus on the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas, the Scorecard informs the ongoing debate of one of the nation’s most frustrating and intractable issues: traffic congestion.

The U.S. Economy’s Mixed Signals - Particularly for Urban America

In the Introduction section of this Annual Report, 12-month rolling averages are provided for monthly national employment levels and urban interstate traffic volumes, and weekly U.S. gas prices. All show increases in 2010 as compared to 2009. This is consistent with the 11% increase in the nation’s travel time tax, from 8.7% to 9.7%. However, the data that rolls up into these national figures tell a more interesting and nuanced story. Table ES-1 shows year-to-year changes in several key statistics, each based on data from the appropriate federal agency. Also, comparisons are made in each between 2010 and 2007, the peak year in all statistics, including the highest level of congestion recorded to date.

Fuel Prices: Fuel prices rose consistently from the beginning of the year from the $2.60’s/gallon to roughly $3/gallon in 2010. The average gallon price rose 43 cents from $2.35 in 2009 to $2.78 in 2010, an 18% increase. For the first time in several years, fuel price volatility was largely a non-story in 2010, though ongoing events in the Middle East might end this quiet period in 2011. But without any price shocks, it is safe to say that overall demand was not significantly impacted by fuel prices in 2010.

Traffic Volumes: Travel on roadways classified as “Urban Interstates” by the Federal Highway Administration —the roads that most closely align with the roads analyzed in the Scorecard—rose about 1% from 2009 and is nearing 2007 volumes, the highest ever recorded. Without shocks to the economy and/or fuel prices in 2011, volumes appear on the trajectory to be back to setting records in 2011.

Jobs and Population: Total employment in the U.S. increased by nearly 1.25 million jobs in 2010, roughly a 1% increase over 2009. Still, from its 2007 peak, over 5% fewer people are employed, a net drop of 7.24M jobs nationwide. Jobs appear to be rebounding, though at a modest pace so far. However, employment in the 100 largest metropolitan areas tells a bleaker story—only 150,000 jobs were added in these areas in 2010, a scant 0.2% increase—and these regions are down 6.15 million jobs collectively from the 2007 peak. Roughly 65% of America lives in these top 100 areas; areas which have suffered 85% of the nation’s total net job losses. In the meantime, since the 2007 peak, total U.S. population has increased by 7.6 million, with 6 million of the increase in the top 100 areas. Since 2007, 6 million more people and 6 million less jobs—that is the situation in urban America heading into 2011.

Gross Domestic Product: In total annual figures, only one year—2008—shows a decline in real GDP. In 2010, the economy grew 4% and has increased overall by 4.2%, nearly $600 billion, since 2007. “Goods” imports and exports—both of which impact the transportation system—grew roughly 20% in 2010, a collective increase of $575 billion and nearly to the 2008 record of $3.39 trillion. ES2 In overall economic output, we are at record levels.

National Congestion Results and Trends

In 2010, the nation’s Travel Time Tax (T3) was 9.7%. This means that during peak driving timesES4 a random traveler on a random trip on the roads analyzed in the 100 largest region’s in the U.S. took an average 9.7% extra time than if there was no congestion. 2010’s T3 is an 11% increase from 2009’s T3 of 8.7%, but still 27% below 2007 and 13% below 2006 levels. Figure ES-1 shows the nation’s annual Travel Time Tax from 2006 to 2009, and shows that 2009’s T3 is 1/3 less than 2007 and more than 20% less than 2006, the first year reported in the Scorecard series. There are several interesting stories within the national number:
The nation’s monthly T3 was consistent as compared to 2009 for the last 11 months of 2010; only January, impacted by severe winter weather saw less congestion that 2009.
The morning peak period T3 was 7.7%, much less than the evening peak period T3 of 11.7%—nearly all regions of the country mirrored this trend, where the morning commute is significantly lower than the afternoon commute.
Monday had the highest morning peak period T3 rise at 1%, while Thursday had the highest evening peak period T3 increase at 1.1%; Monday 7–8 am had the largest hourly T3 increase at 1.6%.
Tuesday replaced Wednesday as the busiest morning peak period, and Friday remained the busiest —evening peak period.
Friday from 5 to 6 PM remained America’s most congested hour of the week, with a T3 of 19.9%, up 1% from 2009.
Each weekday morning, overall national congestion peaks between 7:45 to 8:00 AM. Overall national evening congestion peaks between 5:30 and 5:45 PM Monday through Wednesday and —between 5:15 and 5:30 PM on Thursday and Friday.
Congestion was higher every hour of the week compared to 2009, except for a small decrease on —Saturday evenings.
Weeknight overnight hours saw a consistent increase in T3 of about 1%, signaling a continued increase in work zone related slowdowns. This data provides a sure sign that stimulus projects are still being measured.

Conclusions

In 2009, the Scorecard showed that, congestion— like the economy—stabilized…and reset. We predicted that the key factor for congestion growth was job growth and “what happens in 2010 and beyond to congestion will largely be shaped by the rate and pace of economic recovery, in particular the rate – or lack thereof – of job growth.” So what does 2010 tell us? Looking forward, the Scorecard leads to several conclusions and identifies issues to watch:

We are (back) on the road to gridlock...but not for everyone, everywhere. In 2010, the major cities of America only saw the return of 150,000 of the more than 6 million jobs lost in the recession since 2007. Still, this 0.2% net increase coincided with an 11% increase in congestion. In the meantime, population in these areas has increased since 2007 by 6 million people to over 200 million. If and when employment returns just to 2007 levels, with an estimate from the U.S. census that 75% of people drive to their jobs alone (another 11% share a ride), the 6 million jobs would translate into 9 MILLION extra daily work trips that need to be accommodated by the urban highway network. Obviously where the jobs are created will have a bearing on their impact on congestion, but suffice to say that millions more people employed, millions more people in metropolitan areas, and continued increases in imports and exports will ensure that a byproduct of the job creating economic recovery we all are desperately hoping for is record levels of congestion.
Congestion is acting like a magnet—attracting more congestion. Back in 2007, Washington State DOT showed with rice and a funnel that optimizing throughput is the key to avoiding congestion.ES8 The data in 2010 illustrate clearly that the corridors where traffic breaks down are the first to feel the increases in demand that comes with a growing economy. We fully expect—should growth continue and particularly if job growth picks up—to see congested corridors get longer in length, have delays more hours of each day, and see slower traffic while congested. This triple whammy of longer (length), longer (time), and slower is likely to be the primary contributor to congestion growth in 2011, as it appears to have been in 2010.
Freight mobility is a national issue, and an increasingly important issue. Over the past several years, murmurs have turned into shouts of near universal agreement of the need for national freight policies—after all, facilitating interstate commerce is one of the key clauses in the Constitution and a primary reason, if not THE primary reason, for federal involvement in surface transportation. International goods trade rose more than 20% last year to just below their record levels of 2008. President Obama has declared as a national goal to double exports by 2015. If successful, this will increase the strain on the nation’s highway system. As the data shows, this strain is not evenly placed across the network. Several key corridors traverse multiple states and their ability to support freight movement is a strategic issue for the nation…and only increasing in relevance with time. Many of these corridors also frequently appear on the most congested corridor list. We must treat key corridors like the national asset they are.
If we want to “win the future,” we need to address congested corridors. Horror stories like the Big Dig in Boston or the 20-year plus saga to replace the Bay Bridge in San Francisco show this may be the most difficult time ever to target persistent congestion locations. And that doesn’t even include the complications added by the fact that resources for transportation investment are clearly inadequate and the gap between basic needs and ability to fund is growing quickly. Whatever the solutions may be—extra capacity, active traffic management, toll express lanes, transit alternatives, or creative ideas not yet thought of that shift just enough traffic from peak days/times/locations to break the gridlock—we will not unclog America’s key roads by adding lane miles in the far outlying suburbs or improving pavement quality. People are adaptable and creative (after all, few people actually try to get stuck in traffic), but the data shows that a floundering economy and creative people still had to deal with 2,300 miles of corridors in 2010 that were consistently congested. Efforts like the I-95 Express Lanes in South Florida, the HOT Lanes under construction by a private consortium along the Capital Beltway outside Washington, DC in Virginia, or the active traffic management system including variable speed limits recently installed along I-5 near Seattle are making an impact. But the current efforts are few and far between to move the needle nationally. People can debate each corridor on a case-by-case basis to determine whether fixing it is a national issue, but certainly giving states and regions the tools to fix corridors on their own if federal resources and programs won’t or can’t is imperative.
Operating the system is the biggest force multiplier available to impact full network performance. Of the more than 46,000 road miles analyzed in 2010, about 3,400 miles averaged one hour or more of congestion each weekday in 2010. This means that less than 10% of the nation’s urban limited access highways suffered from recurring congestion (the peak in 2007 was still under 10%). Of course, congestion isn’t limited to just these locations. Accidents, work zones, bad weather, special events are just a few of the reasons that congestion can pop up anywhere at any time on the network. In addition to minimizing the pain associated with these corridors and bottlenecks, addressing the “other 90%” of roads—and the unpredictable congestion that occurs—is the function of “operations.” Operations is the mix of activities from monitoring and managing traffic (including active tools such as ramp meters, variable speed limits, and congestion pricing), detecting and responding to unplanned incidents to minimize their impact on traffic flow, managing traffic around special events, work zones and evacuations, aggressively maintaining roads in bad weather, and communicating available information to the traveling public so people and freight operators can minimize exposure to congested or unsafe conditions. Unfortunately, many of these programs—instead of increasing their scope and effectiveness—are proving to be fodder for cuts in these tight budget times. Interstates alone—though a fraction of the nation’s overall network—carry 24% of the traffic volumes in both urban and rural America. Operations is key to the performance of the interstate and well organized and executed operations programs can obviate the perceived need for major capital improvements on most of the network. Operations is a money saver—not a cash drain.